Now this may seem confusing, but we have to realize that the value of scoring the second goal is independent of whether or not you scored the first goal. We still find that the team that scores the second goal wins about two-thirds of the time: The part that gets difficult is when we look at the value of the second goal (or the third goal). The winning team scoring first 67% of the time also means that the team that scores first has a win percentage of 67%. The team that does not score first wins the rest of the time, or about 33%: In fact, we do find that the team that scores first wins about two-thirds of the time, or about 67%. This also means that on average the winning team carries a 67% probability of scoring the next goal at any point of the game. On average a winning team scores two-thirds, or 67%, of the goals. Let’s start off really simple and set some conditions. Now as a fair warning: I’m not artistic, and I wrote this quickly, so the drawings won’t look very pretty. I find probability trees helpful, so I will try to show what is going on here. Not everyone will get what Tulsky described in that article right away. There is a very small percentage of people who will understand the Monty Hall problem intuitively.
I’m not making fun of Jason Gregor because it can be a difficult concept to grasp. Eric Tulsky, now of the Carolina Hurricanes, showed that the value of scoring first equals the value of any other goal.Ĭonditional probability can be difficult. It may be a bit controversial and difficult to get right away, but the value of scoring first is not special. Not long ago Jason Gregor tweeted about the value of scoring first.
#1st period nhl stats series#
You sure it doesn’t matter? Įvery once-in-a-while I will rant on the concepts and ideas behind what numbers suggest in a series called Behind the Numbers, as a tip of the hat to the website that brought me into hockey analytics: Behind the Net. Teams who give up first goal are 78-128-23. This season teams who score first are 151-50-28. If you or someone you know has developed a gambling problem or addiction, contact 1-800-GAMBLER.Interesting. They have a +25 goal differential, which ranks 12th in the league.The Islanders have allowed 2.6 goals per game, 217 total, the fifth-fewest among NHL teams.The Islanders have the league's 22nd-ranked scoring offense (242 total goals, 3.0 per game).
During their last 10 games, the Islanders and their opponents are averaging 6.3 goals, 1.4 goals lower than their season-long per-game average.New York and its opponents failed to combine to hit the over in any of the Islanders' past 10 contests.The team's goal differential is seventh-best in the league at +52.The Hurricanes are ranked second in NHL play for the fewest goals against this season, having given up 210 total goals (2.6 per game).The Hurricanes are ranked 15th in the league with 262 goals this season, an average of 3.2 per contest.
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